Critical Minerals and the Energy Transition

A Framework for Sustainable Development and Supply Chain Resilience in the G20

Prepared by the Centre for Africa and Near East Studies (CANES) as an independent expert submission to the Think20 (T20) under South Africa’s G20 Presidency.

Executive Summary

Africa’s critical minerals endowment is indispensable to the clean-energy transition; yet, current supply chain governance, trade rules, and verification regimes keep most value, decision-making power, and data control outside the continent. A G20 cooperation agenda should therefore move beyond security of supply to rule-sharing that incorporates African institutions directly into global standard-setting, traceability, and certification. Practically, decision-making for African regulators in EU and OECD working groups must be prioritised.

For green industrialisation in Africa, the G20 must catalyse a shift from exports to beneficiation, precursors, and component manufacturing by aligning finance with the African Green Minerals Strategy (AGMS) and the AfCFTA regional value chains.

Priority actions include a G20-Africa Green Minerals Investment window, co-governed by Afreximbank, AfDB, AFC, and DBSA, that proposes first-loss guarantees for cross-border processing, a compliance cost-sharing facility for ESG and traceability audits, and FX hedging and currency-swap tools. Corridor-level governance (Lobito, North–South, Maputo) should be advanced through harmonised axle-load standards, a single-window customs system, and corridor regulators with real authority over scheduling, safety, and dispute resolution. Importantly, this should be directly linked to midstream plants for renewable energy to cut emissions and costs.

Trade policy under G20 cooperation should tackle tariff escalation on processed goods, promote plurilateral arrangements on EV and battery rules compatible with WTO norms, and institutionalise policy pre-notification to reduce volatility from export bans and quotas.

At its core is a human-centred approach to sustainable development. As such, community rights and ESG performance remain a key requirement, particularly in fostering FPIC practices, contract and payment transparency, credible grievance mechanisms, and circular-economy requirements must be incorporated in all G20-related deals. South Africa’s G20 presidency can anchor a G20–Africa Framework on Mineral Governance that ties these elements together, co-authored standards, investable corridors, shared verification systems, and people-centred protections. This is to enable a Just Energy Transition that delivers both global resilience and African prosperity.

Authors

This report was prepared by CANES, with the collaborative contributions of:

Prof Fredrick Ogenga
Director, Centre for Media & Security Studies, Rongo University

Bilal Bassiouni
CEO and Founder, CANES

Dr Alex Rusero
Head of International Relations, Africa University

Busisipho Siyobi
Head of Resource Governance & Climate Change Programme, Good Governance Africa

Prof Fidelis Allen
Director, Centre for Politics, University of Port Harcourt

Davie Malungisa
Senior Advisor, Natural Resource Governance & Climate Change, Southern Africa Resource Watch