Executive Summary
- Donald Trump’s second presidency in the United States (US) brings a transactional, competitive, and security-focused approach to US-Africa relations. Africa will need to act to protect its interests, leveraging the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCTA) to strengthen regional integration and collective bargaining power.
- With the African Growth and Opportunity Act’s (AGOA) renewal uncertain, African countries should push for equitable trade agreements that prioritise industrialisation and value addition. The continent’s critical minerals are a strategic asset for the global green energy transition, and states must demand local processing and technology transfer to avoid exploitative extractive models.
- While US security cooperation will likely focus on militarised responses, African leaders must advocate for partnerships that address governance and socio-economic root causes of instability.
- Diversifying strategic partnerships beyond the US will enhance Africa’s geopolitical resilience while positioning itself as a leader in global climate action and can attract investment in green industrialisation.
Contextual Analysis
The inauguration of Donald J. Trump for a second presidential term in January 2025 heralds a pivotal moment for US-Africa relations. The first Trump administration was characterised by an “America First” agenda that prioritised transactional diplomacy, bilateralism, and economic competition, often at the expense of multilateral engagement and nuanced regional strategies. For African countries, Trump’s return poses significant challenges but also presents opportunities for recalibrating relations with the US in a rapidly evolving global landscape.
Africa’s growing geopolitical significance cannot be overstated. As the world’s fastest-growing continent demographically, Africa has emerged as a critical player in global markets, with its rich natural resources, expanding consumer base, and the transformative potential of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA). These factors have attracted intense foreign interest, positioning Africa at the centre of strategic competition between major powers such as the US, China, the European Union (EU), and Russia.
The Trump administration’s previous approach to Africa revealed a marked disinterest in long-term engagement, often framing the continent primarily as a theatre for countering Chinese influence. This dynamic is likely to intensify during Trump’s second term, with US policy potentially shaped by a narrower focus on security, extractive industries, and transactional economic deals.
A defining challenge for African countries under Trump’s second presidency will be navigating the administration’s approach to trade and economic engagement. The African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), which has underpinned US-Africa trade relations since 2000, is set to expire in September 2025.
While AGOA provides duty-free access to the US market for thousands of African goods, its renewal remains uncertain amidst a Republican-majority Congress and the Trump administration’s preference for bilateral agreements over multilateral frameworks. This uncertainty is compounded by the growing influence of the AfCFTA, which offers Africa an unprecedented opportunity to shift from fragmented national markets to a unified continental bloc.
Another critical issue is the continent’s role in the global green energy transition. Africa possesses significant reserves of critical minerals, including cobalt, lithium, and rare earth elements, which are essential for renewable energy technologies. However, the global scramble for these resources has often mirrored the exploitative patterns of past resource extraction, with limited local processing and minimal value addition. While the Trump administration has expressed interest in securing critical mineral supplies to bolster US energy independence, its transactional approach may prioritise unprocessed exports over investments in African industrialisation.
Security dynamics also remain a central consideration. Africa continues to face multifaceted security challenges, including terrorism, insurgencies, and state fragility, particularly in the Sahel, the Horn of Africa, and the Gulf of Guinea. US security policy under Trump will likely remain heavily militarised, focusing on counterterrorism initiatives and partnerships with African militaries. However, this approach often fails to address the root causes of instability, such as poor governance, socio-economic inequalities, and climate-induced displacement. Additionally, the rise of non-traditional security actors, such as Russian private military companies in Africa, complicates the security landscape and may heighten US-Russia competition on the continent.
Governance and democracy promotion, traditionally cornerstones of US policy in Africa, are expected to take a backseat under Trump’s leadership. The first Trump administration demonstrated limited interest in supporting democratic processes, often overlooking autocratic tendencies among African leaders favouring security or economic partnerships. This poses a challenge for the continent grappling with governance crises, including contested elections and unconstitutional changes of government. Countries like Uganda, Cameroon, and Equatorial Guinea, where ageing autocrats dominate, are particularly vulnerable to destabilising power struggles. How the Trump administration engages with these administrations – or chooses not to – will meaningfully impact regional stability.
The Trump presidency also intersects with broader shifts in global geopolitics that directly affect Africa. China’s Belt and Road Initiative continues to reshape infrastructure and trade networks across the continent, offering African countries an alternative to Western-led models of engagement.
Meanwhile, Russia’s growing military and political presence in Africa, particularly in conflict zones, presents a challenge to US influence. European actors, though still active, are increasingly preoccupied with internal challenges such as energy security and migration, leaving a strategic vacuum that other powers are eager to fill. For Africa, this multipolar reality offers opportunities to diversify partnerships but also increases the complexity of navigating external interests.
Adding to this mix is Africa’s youth demographic, a potential driver of transformative growth but also a source of vulnerability. High unemployment, limited access to quality education, and socio-economic exclusion have created a volatile environment, particularly in urban areas. These conditions fuel migration pressures, internal displacement, and, in some cases, recruitment into extremist groups. The Trump administration’s hardline stance on immigration is likely to exacerbate these challenges, straining US-Africa relations and pushing African countries to seek alternative solutions.
The global climate crisis further compounds Africa’s challenges. Despite contributing minimally to global emissions, Africa bears a disproportionate burden of climate change impacts, including extreme weather events, food insecurity, and displacement. While the Trump administration has historically downplayed climate action, African countries must remain proactive in advocating for green investments and resilience-building initiatives, leveraging their critical role in global carbon sequestration and renewable energy transitions.
Recommendations
African countries must adopt a proactive and unified approach to engagement with the US. This requires addressing critical dynamics in trade, security, governance, and global partnerships while maintaining a focus on Africa’s long-term development goals and sovereignty.
African countries should consolidate their collective bargaining power by advancing the implementation of AfCFTA. This regional framework provides the foundation for Africa to present a unified economic front in negotiations with the US, ensuring that trade agreements align with continental priorities such as industrialisation, job creation, and value addition. By leveraging AfCFTA, African countries can demand equitable trade terms that prioritise processing and manufacturing within Africa, shifting away from the historical reliance on raw material exports. Engaging with the US through this lens will enable Africa to shape a trade relationship that supports sustainable economic transformation.
Governments must take a firm stance on the terms of critical mineral extraction and green industrialisation. As global demand for renewable energy resources grows, African countries have the opportunity to set clear conditions for the development of their mineral wealth, including requirements for local processing, technology transfer, and revenue-sharing mechanisms that benefit local communities. Strategic partnerships with the US in these sectors should be pursued only if they align with Africa’s long-term goals of building green industrial capacity and reducing dependency on extractive industries.
The approach to security cooperation with the US will need to be redefined, focusing on fostering regional solutions to the continent’s security challenges. While US military assistance has been critical in addressing terrorism and insurgencies, African countries must emphasise capacity building and governance reforms as part of any security partnership. Proactively engaging the Trump administration to support African-led initiatives, such as those under the African Union’s Peace and Security Council, will reinforce the continent’s agency in shaping its security landscape. Moreover, African states should insist on security partnerships that address the root causes of instability, including governance deficits and socio-economic disparities, rather than relying solely on militarised responses.
Finally, South Africa’s presidency of the G20 in 2025 offers Africa a unique platform to elevate its priorities on the global stage. African leaders should coordinate closely with South Africa to advance a collective agenda that addresses debt relief, climate finance, and fairer trade policies. By leveraging this platform, Africa can amplify its voice in discussions with the Trump administration and other global powers, advocating for solutions that align with Africa’s developmental goals and the principles of inclusivity, equality, and sustainability. The G20 presidency provides an opportunity to build bridges between Africa and the Global North, compelling the US to engage constructively with the continent on issues of mutual interest.
Countries must prioritise engagement with the Trump administration on the renewal and improvement of AGOA. This flagship US trade policy must be restructured to align with Africa’s broader economic goals, particularly in light of AfCFTA’s objectives. African leaders should advocate for a long-term renewal of AGOA that includes provisions supporting key sectors such as digital trade, agriculture, and value-added manufacturing. Ensuring that AGOA evolves from a unilateral preference scheme to a platform for mutual benefit will help secure its relevance and effectiveness in advancing Africa’s development.
African states should actively diversify their strategic partnerships to reduce overreliance on the US or any single global power. By strengthening ties with emerging economies, the European Union, and other international actors, Africa can maintain its autonomy and create a more balanced geopolitical posture. This diversification strategy should be complemented by a focus on building intra-African cooperation, ensuring that the continent’s approach to external partners reflects collective interests rather than fragmented national agendas.
African countries must amplify their collective voice in global climate negotiations, leveraging their role as key players in carbon sequestration and renewable energy development. Engaging the Trump administration on climate-related investments, despite its historically sceptical stance, can open pathways for green financing and technology transfer. African leaders should position the continent as an indispensable partner in global climate action, emphasising the mutual benefits of investing in Africa’s resilience and sustainability.